Market Insights 23/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 23/05/2025

A further small downward move seen in yesterdays session, after pushing upwards earlier in the week with comfort returning after the large decrease in Norwegian output mid-week.

This morning Ofgem confirmed the UK domestic Price Cap value at £1,720 as a headline rate, representing a 7% fall to the previous cap. The driver was simply wholesale prices which have reduced by just over £100 alongside the bundling of Operating Costs (which has essentially removed the £16 payment uplift) and the associated impact on percentage-based VAT (£16) to give the overall reduction of £129 for the year. The value is now very close to where the October 2024 cap was set.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.36 (from €36.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 86.81p (from 87.85p).

Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 285mcm (243). EU gas storage showing at 45.27% (45.14%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €38 (vs €36 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 96p (vs 88p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £88 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £79 (£81) and Front Season at £88 (£90).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $64 ($65) and EUAs are at €72 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.25 ($3.37) and JKM is at $12.35 ($12.48) with TTF Equiv of $12.03 ($12.18).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.