Market Insights 22/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/05/2025

A small downward move seen in yesterdays session, after pushing higher on Tuesday.

The Norwegian flows, much improved versus yesterday, are still lower than the usual values thanks to a series of planned outages – typical during the summer months to help ensure stability during the crucial winter period.

Whilst the maintenance plan is known in advance, it seems the impact of flows – halving from their usual levels – caught the market off guard and caused a level of concern for the push seen on Tuesday.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.62 (from €36.98) and the NBP Front Month contract at 87.85p (from 89.09p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 243mcm (160). EU gas storage showing at 45.14% (44.91%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €38 (vs €37 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 88p, Front Season 97p (vs 89p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 90p)
UK Power Base spot £87 (from £86)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £81 (£79) and Front Season at £90 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $65 ($65) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.37 ($3.43) and JKM is at $12.48 ($12.52) with TTF Equiv of $12.18 ($12.20).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.