Market Insights 21/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/05/2025

After several weeks of little to no movement, yesterdays session saw an upwards movement.

Whilst mixed reasons were at play, the loss of some 50% of the Norwegian output with both Kollsnes and Troll both on planned outage for a couple of days won’t have helped.

Germany storage facilities have been offering capacity in recent days, and whilst Rehden was somewhat oversubscribed, it is believed Jemgum was not – although it is a much smaller facility.

Technical levels were also at play with selected levels broken, allowing a further push upwards.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.98 (from €35.23) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.09p (from 84.29p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 160mcm (299). EU gas storage showing at 44.91% (44.75%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €38 (vs €37 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 98p (vs 84p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 90p (from 82p)
UK Power Base spot £86 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £79 (£75) and Front Season at £89 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $65 ($66) and EUAs are at €73 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.43 ($3.11) and JKM is at $12.52 ($11.97) with TTF Equiv of $12.20 ($11.63).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.