Market Insights 16/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/05/2025

No real movement seen from yesterdays session as it was confirmed President Putin would not be in attendance at the peace talks with Ukraine.

This does seem to have frustrated expected progress from earlier in the week when the idea of a face-to-face meeting was suggested, by President Putin.

With no further progress there, or any other change likely to impact energy markets, we held station – largely to be expected.

Closer to home, yesterday saw the close of the upcoming calculation period for the July domestic Price Cap with Ofgem expected to announce the value in a couple of weeks time. We’ll issue our forecast shortly – however it will be a lower value than the current April value of £1,849 thanks to declining values in wholesale energy during the period and around a 6% reduction should be expected.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.29 (from €35.05) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.48p (from 83.73p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 311mcm (311). EU gas storage showing at 43.67% (43.43%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €37 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 94p (vs 84p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £74 (from £80)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£75) and Front Season at £85 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $65 ($66) and EUAs are at €73 (€72). Henry Hub is at $3.36 ($3.49) and JKM is at $11.88 ($11.48) with TTF Equiv of $11.58 ($11.52).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.