Market Insights 15/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 15/05/2025

A small downward movement seen in yesterdays session, unwinding the gains seen in the previous one.

The US President has been on tour in the Middle East and securing trade deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Today also sees face to face discussions between Russia and Ukraine, however President Putin is not believed to be in attendance – which may impact the progress of any talks, and likely to frustrate expected progress.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.05 (from €35.74) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.73p (from 85.12p).

Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 311mcm (308). EU gas storage showing at 43.43% (43.13%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €37 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 94p (vs 85p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 86p)
UK Power Base spot £80 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£77) and Front Season at £83 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($67) and EUAs are at €72 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.49 ($3.65) and JKM is at $11.48 ($11.46) with TTF Equiv of $11.52 ($11.72).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.