Market Insights 14/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 14/05/2025

More small upward movement seen in yesterdays session, continuing the bullish trend of the last couple of days.

No real change to fundamentals, but perhaps the consideration around the potential change in Russian gas to Europe – expected to be banned in stages later this year and a total ban by 2027 – and how impactful that may be.

That may of course be overshadowed by any plans the US may have that may find themselves involved in the infrastructure, either within Ukraine or the Nord Stream 2 AG pipelines, as part of the ongoing peace negotiations – with both the Russian and Ukrainian leaders expected to meet in person tomorrow.

Until we see the outcome of those talks, markets may just hold station for the time being.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.74 (from €35.39) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.12p (from 84.60p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 308mcm (309). EU gas storage showing at 43.13% (42.87%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 95p (vs 85p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £82)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£78) and Front Season at £86 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($65) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.65 ($3.65) and JKM is at $11.46 ($11.44) with TTF Equiv of $11.72 ($11.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.