Market Insights 12/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/05/2025

A small downward movement to end the week seen in Fridays session, following both up and down days across the earlier sessions.

Over the weekend it seems some progress may have been made with in person talks expected between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday. It is not clear as to whether this is to negotiate a ceasefire or ending the conflict, with the proposal of a ceasefire being proposed many times in recent days.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.62 (from €35.34) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.69p (from 84.80p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 310mcm (315). EU gas storage showing at 42.50% (41.84%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 93p (vs 85p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 85p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£77) and Front Season at £85 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $64 ($63) and EUAs are at €70 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.80 ($3.59) and JKM is at $11.47 ($11.45) with TTF Equiv of $11.45 ($11.68).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.