Market Insights 09/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/05/2025

An uptick seen in yesterdays session as the market takes consideration of the phase out of Russian gas in Europe over the coming years and the impact of the flexible gas refilling targets for the upcoming winter.

However, it is also rumoured that the US and Russia are discussing a restart of the very same to Europe, which may form part of the peace deal with Ukraine. It is thought the US may either hold direct ownership or control of some or all of the infrastructure. Whilst it is a very complex topic, it is a conflicting outlook to the intent of what the European Commission is trying to achieve.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.34 (from €34.53) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.80p (from 83.07p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 315mcm (285). EU gas storage showing at 41.84% (41.60%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (3).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €35 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 94p (vs 83p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 82p)
UK Power Base spot £84 (from £85)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£76) and Front Season at £86 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $63 ($61) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.59 ($3.62) and JKM is at $11.45 ($11.41) with TTF Equiv of $11.68 ($11.50).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.