Market Insights 07/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 07/05/2025

A further upwards push seen in yesterdays session as the European Commission confirms its plans to ban all Russian gas in Europe by the end of 2027, including ending spot deals later this year.

Plenty of Russian gas still finds its way into Europe and it this that is being targeted in the phase out plan, which will mean even more reliance on other sources such as US LNG.

President Trump met with the Canadian Prime Minister at The White House yesterday, after plenty of words exchanged in the lead up to that meeting, to potentially discuss trade deals to avoid tariffs.

Overnight India launched missile attacks on Pakistan, just hours after the UK announced it had agreed a free trade agreement – the biggest since Brexit.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.74 (from €32.93) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.78p (from 80.15p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 280mcm (278). EU gas storage showing at 41.41% (41.16%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €35 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 93p (vs 80p and 90p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £85 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£74) and Front Season at £84 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $62 ($60) and EUAs are at €69 (€67). Henry Hub is at $3.46 ($3.55) and JKM is at $11.32 ($11.26) with TTF Equiv of $10.94 ($10.94).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.