Market Insights 06/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 06/05/2025

A push upwards to end the week was seen in Fridays session as the price differential between Asia and Europe attracted some LNG cargoes to be diverted away from European destinations in favour of Asia – the result pulling European prices upwards.

Over the weekend it was reported that the European Commission is close to finalising a proposal to legal text that will ban all Russian gas coming in to Europe by the end of 2027 and ban any existing spot contract by the end of 2025. Further announcements are expected today.

Meanwhile Ukrainian drone attacks have closed all airports in and around Moscow this morning with still no sign yet of a peace deal being agreed following last weeks minerals deal with the US.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.93 (from €32.15) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.15p (from 77.25p).

Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 278mcm (314). EU gas storage showing at 41.16% (39.52%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 90p (vs 77p and 88p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 72p)
UK Power Base spot £83 (from £76)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£70) and Front Season at £82 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $60 ($62) and EUAs are at €67 (€67). Henry Hub is at $3.55 ($3.48) and JKM is at $11.26 ($11.26) with TTF Equiv of $10.94 ($10.64).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.