Market Insights 01/05/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 01/05/2025

Welcome along to May.

A small uptick seen in yesterdays session, albeit hardly noticeable, as underlying fundamentals remain unchanged and President Trump hasn’t said too much this week to cause a directional move as we’ve seen plenty of in his first 100 days in office.

Last night however it was announced that the US and Ukraine had finally signed the minerals deal, which may now lead to some form of development in the peace talks they are trying to broker. That said, comments from the Russian side have recently said it is too complicated and direct talks with Ukraine are likely needed.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.32 (from €31.96) and the NBP Front Month contract at 77.93p (from 77.11p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 315mcm (314). EU gas storage showing at 39.21% (38.95%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (4).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €34 (vs €32 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 88p (vs 77p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 76p (from 78p)
UK Power Base spot £78 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£71) and Front Season at £81 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $61 ($64) and EUAs are at €67 (€65). Henry Hub is at $3.33 ($3.39) and JKM is at $11.22 ($11.22) with TTF Equiv of $10.77 ($10.69).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.