Market Insights 28/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 28/04/2025

We’re back. Note that the prices in brackets in todays reports are referencing our last daily report before our break.

So what have we missed? Prices have come off a little further over the past week although mostly late in the week as technical levels were tested and succeeded.

The US tariff battle continues, although we are still very much in the 90 temporary period whilst trade negotiations take place. The progression on a peace deal in Ukraine appears to getting very close, albeit the terms are unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine – leaving the country and the EU with a potential dilemma of rejecting any terms which may include a withdrawal of support from the US.

Warmer temperatures are here for the next week or so before settling close to seasonal normal for the weeks after in the latest forecast. This will have helped with the further downward price movement towards the end of last week.

Last report (17th) saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.43 (from €35.31) and the NBP Front Month contract at 78.57p (from 86.88p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 324mcm (333). EU gas storage showing at 38.41% (35.96%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (4).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €33 (vs €32 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 80p (vs 87p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £78 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£75) and Front Season at £81 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $67 ($66) and EUAs are at €66 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.94 ($3.25) and JKM is at $11.27 ($11.86) with TTF Equiv of $10.82 ($11.77).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.