DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/04/2025
Some further upward movement seen in yesterdays session, seemingly without any clear rationale as to a particular driver.
Indeed, some news surrounding Venture Global LNG to begin commercial operations after a 3 year commissioning phase and the European Commission seeking to find legal options to allow European countries to break long-term contracts for Russian gas without penalty would typically be bearish driving stories.
Moreover, National Grid ESO in its summer outlook suggested the UK could face its lowest-ever electricity demand as renewables and cheap imports from Europe keep the system well-supplied. We’ve already seen an abundance of solar generation in recent weeks, pushing spot prices negative at times.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.31 (from €34.50) and the NBP Front Month contract at 86.88p (from 84.32p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 333mcm (334). EU gas storage showing at 35.96% (35.58%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 4 (3).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €36 (vs €35 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 95p (vs 84p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £87 (from £83)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£73) and Front Season at £83 (£84).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $66 ($65) and EUAs are at €67 (€66). Henry Hub is at $3.25 ($3.33) and JKM is at $11.86 ($11.37) with TTF Equiv of $11.77 ($11.41).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 17/04/2025
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