Market Insights 16/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/04/2025

An unwinding of Mondays small gains seen in yesterdays session as the market ‘holds station’ after the whirlwind of the last few weeks.

Whilst we wait for the next dramatic turn of events, likely a geopolitical one, the markets turn more towards the fundamentals which currently show no immediate concerns.

Gas storage numbers are steadily increasing, however data flows are showing errors for French storage values which is distorting our overview this morning and therefore not updated. Warmer temperatures are expected as we now head into summer and LNG is still very much heading towards Europe – with plenty from the US.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.50 (from €34.50) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.32p (from 85.37p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 334mcm (323). EU gas storage showing at 34.41% (35.58%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 94p (vs 85p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £83 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£73) and Front Season at £84 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $65 ($65) and EUAs are at €66 (€67). Henry Hub is at $3.33 ($3.33) and JKM is at $11.37 ($12.52) with TTF Equiv of $11.41 ($11.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.