Market Insights 11/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/04/2025

Despite showing plenty of upside early on in yesterdays session, as markets reacted to President Trump announcing a 90 day pause in full tariffs being applied, there is still a 10% baseline application and 25% on motor vehicles still in force.

After the initial knee-jerk upwards movement, the market slowly started to lose value before quickly falling during the afternoon to end the session down.

This goes to show that volatility is still very much here as we mentioned yesterday and this is hard to decipher as to where the market will go next.

Whilst the European Commission continues to push a flexible gas storage filling agenda, now expected to have a 10% flex on the 90% target it also includes a two-month window (1st October to 1st December) – in contrast to a fixed target of 90% by 1st November. The intent is to remove panic from the market. Whilst the theory may be sound, it may make the market too relaxed and cause issues nearer to the window close.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.29 (from €33.67) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.18p (from 83.21p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 320mcm (330). EU gas storage showing at 34.97% (34.95%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 2 (1).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €34 (vs €33 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 82p, Front Season 91p (vs 83p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 84p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £71 (£70) and Front Season at £81 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $63 ($65) and EUAs are at €62 (€61). Henry Hub is at $3.56 ($3.82) and JKM is at $12.61 ($12.69) with TTF Equiv of $10.92 ($10.90).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.