Market Insights 09/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/04/2025

More downside seen yesterday as, despite financial markets initially showing some promise of recovery, it seems China are set on holding firm with their 34% retaliatory tariffs and so the additional 50% from the US has come into effect.

Overnight Asian financial markets have shown decline, as is the US markets after President Trump affirmed his position and signed an Executive Order to redesignate coal such that it can be used to push more energy production for the country.

Meanwhile the EUs approach for zero-for-zero tariffs show that a deal is likely to be done with the US, perhaps from many of the countries now tariffed, but the US want more – suggesting the $350bn trade deficit is paid for by the EU buying more energy from the US.

With China likely to refuse US energy, this may find itself heading towards Europe and as the US produce and export more – the EU may be the destination. It seems bizarre that just weeks ago Europe seemed concerned as to how it will refill gas stocks this summer in readiness for next winter, but we now face the possibility of having too much to know what to do with.

Prices are therefore unsurprisingly being pushed downwards and more seen this morning in early trades. Whilst the value of the unit of energy is now getting smaller, the percentage is still significant. Early trades show the market down some 4% this morning in early trades.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.23 (from €37.00) and the NBP Front Month contract at 88.75p (from 90.77p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 325mcm (313). EU gas storage showing at 34.95% (34.96%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 1 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 96p (vs 91p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 88p (from 87p)
UK Power Base spot £85 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£73) and Front Season at £83 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $63 ($64) and EUAs are at €62 (€63). Henry Hub is at $3.47 ($3.66) and JKM is at $12.77 ($12.78) with TTF Equiv of $11.59 ($11.85).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.