Market Insights 04/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/04/2025

As we know when Donald Trump speaks it usually has a big impact and his tariff announcement on Wednesday evening has done exactly that.

Whilst financial markets saw declines, mostly on the back of concerns for the impact on the economy, investment and jobs being affected, energy also saw a decline in yesterdays session.

The impact from major energy intensive industries to change their future plans could impact the amount of energy they need in the future. Companies were already publicly discussing potential shut downs and reductions in output in response to the tariff announcement.

On top of that we also saw OPEC+ release a surprise announcement to increase output by three times for May pushing oil prices lower. In addition it is believed the European Commission may be looking at relaxing the storage refilling targets, initially throught to be for 2026 and 2027, for this current year.

Plenty for traders to consider yesterday, and the result was a hard push downwards in price level.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.20 (from €42.45) and the NBP Front Month contract at 95.38p (from 102.65p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 287mcm (302). EU gas storage showing at 34.35% (34.05%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 3 (2).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €40 (vs €39 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 95p, Front Season 102p (vs 99p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 99p (from 99p)
UK Power Base spot £68 (from £68)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£80) and Front Season at £88 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($75) and EUAs are at €69 (€66). Henry Hub is at $4.14 ($4.06) and JKM is at $13.08 ($13.19) with TTF Equiv of $12.71 ($13.16).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.