Market Insights 02/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 02/04/2025

An upward jolt seen yesterday, perhaps as the market starts to think about the fundamentals of what is ahead.

As we reach the end of winter and start to think about the plan to refill gas storages, there is quite a hill to climb in order to reach the 90% mark by 1st November. Whilst it was achieved from this point in 2022, it wasn’t in 2021, and all of the other recent years had a much higher starting level.

Europe will now rely on strong and steady LNG flows more than ever with the loss of pipeline gas from Russia. Whilst LNG has been the main focus of supply in the last couple of years, this year will be even more important.

Sadly yesterday Ofgem announced the first market exit for some time. Rebel Energy UK, a challenger UK energy supplier with around 80,000 domestic and 10,000 commercial customers, has entered the SOLR process – something that was well tested in 2021 and 2022 with the collapse of a large number of suppliers at the start of the ‘energy crisis’.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.45 (from €40.67) and the NBP Front Month contract at 102.65p (from 97.76p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 307mcm (330). EU gas storage showing at 33.59% (33.72%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 5 (5).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €42 (vs €42 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 103p, Front Season 109p (vs 98p and 105p)
UK Gas NBP spot 101p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £73 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£78) and Front Season at £93 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($75) and EUAs are at €70 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.95 ($4.12) and JKM is at $13.23 ($13.08) with TTF Equiv of $13.46 ($12.89).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.