Market Insights 01/04/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 01/04/2025

Welcome along to April.

A muted start to the week seen in yesterdays session as the various recent news stories give us little to progress the market in either direction.

Concerns around gas storage refilling ahead of next winter continue to play out with a third of capacity held in store at the end of winter and eyes now start to look ahead at the refilling trajectory. That said, the European Commission continue to discuss flexibility which could see both a two month window and a slightly lower target being hit if the wholesale market conditions are distorted. It still appears rather open this could make it difficult and could introduce new concerns for the market.

On the peace deal front, that seems to have started to show some cracks in terms of how progress is not as straightforward as hoped. Whilst there are likely continuous and detailed discussions going on behind closed doors, publicly made comments appear to show frustrations being shared by all sides. Whilst this continues, the market seems unsure what to make of it having being poised for comments from these discussions so far this year. With little being shared in recent days we may be pushed to focus on fundamentals once again rather than rumour.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.67 (from €40.82) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.76p (from 98.55p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 330mcm (328). EU gas storage showing at 33.72% (33.69%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 5 (4).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 105p (vs 99p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 93p)
UK Power Base spot £92 (from £96)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£85) and Front Season at £89 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €68 (€69). Henry Hub is at $4.12 ($4.07) and JKM is at $13.08 ($13.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.89 ($12.97).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.