Market Insights 31/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 31/03/2025

A quiet end to a week that saw little movement overall seen on Friday.

Whilst much of the focus is on progress around peace talks, it seems clear that there are gaps that seem difficult to close in those ongoing discussions.

President Trump appears to be losing patience with progress, making public his annoyance with President Putin over his demands for regime change in Ukraine as he threatens potential tariffs on Russian oil to move discussions along.

He has also been pushing for Ukraine to sign the minerals deal, which may have changed structure since it was to be signed in the fateful White House meeting a month ago.

As we now move out of winter delivery, with today being the final day of March, May and Winter become our front month and season respectively in our report.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.82 (from €41.20) and the NBP Front Month contract at 98.55p (from 99.35p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 328mcm (327). EU gas storage showing at 33.69% (33.62%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 4 (4).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €40 (vs €41 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 99p, Front Season 103p (vs 99p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 98p)
UK Power Base spot £96 (from £70)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£86) and Front Season at £89 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €69 (€69). Henry Hub is at $4.07 ($3.93) and JKM is at $13.09 ($13.18) with TTF Equiv of $12.97 ($13.03).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.