Market Insights 28/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 28/03/2025

A fairly quiet session seen yesterday, whilst the market deciphers all of the mixed messaging out there.

Some European leaders met yesterday and continue to double-down on support for Ukraine, potentially including some form of peacekeeping force in the country. At the same time there is plenty of public disdain for the Russian commitment to any form of peace from the European and Ukrainian side.

From an energy perspective, there has been plenty of speculation around flows of gas being restarted via Ukraine (which ended in December), or the use of the Nord Stream pipelines (three of the four strings are damaged). Although many see these scenarios as unlikely, this is mostly down to the European view Russian gas is no longer welcome in any circumstances and would likely block any progress here.

From a peace progress perspective, it seems plenty of talking is happening but with little practical progress being made. Where this goes next continues to be the concerning focus of all sides.

Long term temperature forecasts show some warmer temperatures to be expected for the next week or so before sticking closely to the 10 year seasonal normal trend for the rest of April. This will likely help limit the gas storage levels hitting dangerous lows as focus starts to be on getting gas injected once again ready for next winter.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.20 (from €40.87) and the NBP Front Month contract at 99.35p (from 99.00p).

Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 327mcm (325). EU gas storage showing at 33.62% (33.72%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 4 (5).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €42 (vs €41 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 99p, Front Season 100p (vs 99p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 96p)
UK Power Base spot £70 (from £90)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£87) and Front Season at £83 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €69 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.93 ($3.86) and JKM is at $13.18 ($13.20) with TTF Equiv of $13.03 ($12.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.