Market Insights 27/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 27/03/2025

Whilst in theory there appears to be some form of agreement on a partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine – to at least avoid energy infrastructure – both sides continue to claim the other has broken the agreement multiple times.

Further developments in the safe passage of items in the Black Sea, albeit conditional on sanctions being lifted and other conditions, have been discussed but Europe and Ukraine both appear to have reacted negatively to such developments.

It therefore seems unclear as to what is next. Is progress really being made or is there just lots of talking? It does seem clear that this will not be agreed overnight.

Meanwhile the latest Commitment of Traders report confirms Investment Fund long positions have grown again in recent weeks after shedding considerable positions rapidly ahead of those peace talks commencing.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.87 (from €41.56) and the NBP Front Month contract at 99.00p (from 100.78p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 325mcm (327). EU gas storage showing at 33.72% (33.91%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 5 (4).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 99p, Front Season 99p (vs 101p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 100p)
UK Power Base spot £90 (from £94)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£88) and Front Season at £83 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €71 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.86 ($3.84) and JKM is at $13.20 ($13.15) with TTF Equiv of $12.93 ($13.17).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.