Market Insights 26/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 26/03/2025

There seemed to be mixed messages coming out of the talks held in Saudi Arabia, albeit with a positive undertone throughout the day, keeping the market guessing.

However later on it seemed clearer that much was discussed and agreements in principle reached which appeared to give the market some confidence to push a little lower.

Those agreements were around suspension of military strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days starting 18th March (which we were already aware of) but also a pathway to safe navigation in the Black Sea and restoration of Russia’s access to agricultural and fertiliser exports however this comes with a list of conditions from the Russian side. These include removal of sanctions and restrictions to this sector.

As we quickly approach the end of the winter delivery period and next winter becomes our front season next week, temperature forecasts show a below seasonal normal level throughout April which will continue to put pressure on European gas storage levels as we seek to adjust to injection mode. The European Commission continue to seek a solution to managing the ‘flexibility’ to refill with drafts suggesting they are likely to land on a two month window in which to refill to 90% perhaps with a slight deviation for some countries to be within a marginal number of the 90% target.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.56 (from €42.75) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.78p (from 103.97p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 327mcm (329). EU gas storage showing at 33.91% (34.01%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 4 (5).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €42 (vs €42 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 101p (vs 104p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 100p)
UK Power Base spot £94 (from £96)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£88) and Front Season at £85 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €70 (€72). Henry Hub is at $3.84 ($3.91) and JKM is at $13.15 ($13.39) with TTF Equiv of $13.17 ($13.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.