Market Insights 25/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 25/03/2025

A flat day overall to get this week started after an eventful end to last week, although the market did fluctuate a little up and down throughout the session.

Much of the anticipation over progress of peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine held in Saudi Arabia is the key focus. The US and Russia have both nodded to positive discussions yesterday and indicate they ‘discussed everything’. President Trump continues to indicate the minerals deal with Ukraine will be ‘signed soon’, whilst the Ukrainians say they have named energy plants to be off limits from attacks in the energy structure ceasefire proposal.

The US and Russia are expected to release a joint statement on yesterdays talks at 8am GMT this morning. It seems this may be the focus of direction for the markets for today.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.75 (from €42.61) and the NBP Front Month contract at 103.97p (from 103.79p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (332). EU gas storage showing at 34.01% (33.90%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 5 (5).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €43 (vs €43 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 104p, Front Season 104p (vs 104p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 104p)
UK Power Base spot £96 (from £98)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£89) and Front Season at £84 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($72) and EUAs are at €72 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.91 ($3.98) and JKM is at $13.39 ($13.39) with TTF Equiv of $13.53 ($13.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.