Market Insights 21/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/03/2025

A fairly quiet day in terms of price movement seen yesterday with a bearish move towards the end of the day.

The US and Russia announced they will be meeting once again in Saudi Arabia on Monday to further discuss the technicalities of a ceasefire. Meanwhile President Zelenskyy has stated that energy assets in Ukraine are, and always will be, owned by Ukraine – contradicting reports that the US may be seeking to own or control such assets. President Trump meanwhile stated that the minerals deal would be signed imminently – after being silent on the topic for some time.

HOWEVER overnight the big news (unconfirmed at the point of releasing our report) is that the Sudzha processing plant has been hit in a Ukrainian drone strike – with videos of fireballs shown on social media. This would mean no gas could pass through from Russia to Ukraine – potentially impacting the settlement of a peace deal. This would also be in contrast to the Russian stance to avoid energy and infrastructure in attacks and could therefore escalate matters. Energy markets are likely to react negatively to this story and will watch for confirmation from either side.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.86 (from €43.36) and the NBP Front Month contract at 104.33p (from 106.20p).

Asgard and Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 319mcm (325). EU gas storage showing at 34.02% (34.25%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 6 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €43 (vs €43 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 104p, Front Season 104p (vs 106p and 105p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 107p)
UK Power Base spot £67 (from £98)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £91 (£92) and Front Season at £85 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($71) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $3.98 ($4.25) and JKM is at $13.53 ($13.76) with TTF Equiv of $13.63 ($13.84).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.