Market Insights 20/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/03/2025

Whilst the market started in an upward direction yesterday, which was perhaps largely unsurprising following the underwhelming call between Presidents Trump and Putin on Tuesday, the rest of the day saw it push upwards aggressively.

A call between Trump and Zelenskyy took place yesterday which again seemed to make no clear progressive move forwards, meanwhile it is reported that energy and other infrastructure is continued to be targeted in attacks. More face to face talks are expected in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

Meanwhile the latest Commitment of Traders report showed an entire halt in the shedding of net long positions of investment funds, perhaps suggesting there could be a re-entry point as the market turns bullish once again.

Technical analysts would likely suggest an upward movement to €46-47.50 could be achievable as the most recent point of resistance on the TTF front month contract – last seen earlier this month when those funds were quickly exiting positions.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.36 (from €40.76) and the NBP Front Month contract at 106.20p (from 100.01p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 325mcm (319). EU gas storage showing at 34.25% (34.53%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (6).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €44, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €44, Front Season €43 (vs €43 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 106p, Front Season 105p (vs 100p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 107p (from 95p)
UK Power Base spot £98 (from £100)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£87) and Front Season at £88 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($71) and EUAs are at €73 (€71). Henry Hub is at $4.25 ($4.05) and JKM is at $13.76 ($13.11) with TTF Equiv of $13.84 ($13.08).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.