Market Insights 19/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 19/03/2025

The market seemed to hold station pending the lines coming out of the much anticipated call between Presidents Trump and Putin which took place during the afternoon UK time for around 90 minutes. However the outcome, most of which was released after market close, was somewhat underwhelming and nothing close to the expectation.

Whilst energy infrastructure will be avoided for 30 days (with President Putin signalling this would be with immediate effect), a full ceasefire was not agreed. It is however interesting as to why energy infrastructure will be avoided – leaving open the speculation that a US-Russia partnership in this space may be on the cards, as rumoured in recent months. This certainly appears to be a key focus from the Kremlin released lines overnight.

However it was reported that just hours after the call, energy infrastructure was hit. Reading further into the released notes, it seems the counter offer which includes the removal of foreign aid and intelligence to Ukraine must also be agreed to for the 30 days.

Markets may therefore not see this as a deal that is agreed, or even perhaps agreeable, and may seek to raise further concern.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.76 (from €41.25) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.01p (from 100.94p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 319mcm (312). EU gas storage showing at 34.53% (34.84%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 6 (6).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 99p (vs 101p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 103p)
UK Power Base spot £100 (from £94)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£86) and Front Season at £82 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($71) and EUAs are at €71 (€70). Henry Hub is at $4.05 ($4.02) and JKM is at $13.11 ($13.18) with TTF Equiv of $13.08 ($13.21).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.