Market Insights 18/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/03/2025

Markets started the week with a bearish session.

Later this week warmer temperatures are expected but the long term view still forecasts below seasonal normal levels which may continue to pressure gas storages which are now below 35% on average across Europe – with France and Netherlands just above 20% each.

Today will see Presidents Trump and Putin hold a phone call to discuss the potential ceasefire arrangement and perhaps agree a way forward to ending the conflict in Ukraine. The outcome of this call is likely to be the main focus of news today.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.25 (from €42.29) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.94p (from 100.89p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 312mcm (333). EU gas storage showing at 34.84% (35.01%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 6 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 100p (vs 104p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 105p)
UK Power Base spot £94 (from £99)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£88) and Front Season at £82 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($71) and EUAs are at €70 (€71). Henry Hub is at $4.02 ($4.10) and JKM is at $13.18 ($13.47) with TTF Equiv of $13.21 ($13.50).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.