Market Insights 17/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/03/2025

Still no agreement on a ceasefire has been reached, and the market holds to see what comes next. It is assumed further talks are taking place behind closed doors in an attempt to reach an agreement. The market will continue to watch this closely.

On Friday it was rumoured that some countries are pushing for the gas storage filling targets to be made more flexible – with the 90% to be hit between 1st October and 1st December instead of 1st November. The current belief is that a fixed date allows for price manipulation of the market and is pushing prices higher and this ‘flexibility’ around dates will help ease that situation. The proposals are currently being voted on.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.29 (from €42.08) and the NBP Front Month contract at 103.89p (from 102.99p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 333mcm (332). EU gas storage showing at 35.01% (35.89%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (11).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €42 (vs €42 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 104p, Front Season 103p (vs 103p and 102p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 102p)
UK Power Base spot £99 (from £103)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£84) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($70) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $4.10 ($4.11) and JKM is at $13.47 ($13.67) with TTF Equiv of $13.50 ($13.42).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.