Market Insights 14/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 14/03/2025

A fairly flat day until President Putin commented on his view of the proposed ceasefire.

Coming late in the day, moving the market swiftly downwards in the final hour of trading (only partly being captured in the settlement calculation window) he stated that, in principle, they are accepting of a ceasefire but it must focus on long-term peace and not simply allow for rest for troops to simply start again in 30 days time.

Moreover he stated there would need to be conditions agreed to in order to show willingness to that end goal. To ‘remove the underlying causes for the crisis’ – believed to be the encroachment of NATO on its border. There would also be expectation on claiming land already occupied and insistence on no foreign military (or ‘peacekeepers’).

He also touched on working in partnership with the US on the ‘pipe to Europe’ – which is believed to reference Nord Stream 2 AG. This has been discussed for some time coming under American ownership or control and one string of this is undamaged (giving capacity of 27.5bcm). Whilst some concerns remain around its actual use, for example European certification, if that was to be a condition of peace it would be likely an expedited route could be found.

American representatives are in Moscow to meet with President Putin to relay the terms of a ceasefire and to obtain a formal acceptance.

None of the above is a surprise, many points have been newsworthy in recent weeks – however as seen many times before, when President Putin speaks about energy it has an instant impact on European energy markets.

Meanwhile President Zelenskyy has commented that Russia appears to be rejecting the ceasefire proposal and is ‘too scared’ to say no to President Trump.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.08 (from €42.25) and the NBP Front Month contract at 102.99p (from 104.19p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 332mcm (332). EU gas storage showing at 35.89% (36.23%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 11 (10).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €42 (vs €42 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 103p, Front Season 102p (vs 104p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 105p)
UK Power Base spot £103 (from £104)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £84 (£85) and Front Season at £83 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($71) and EUAs are at €71 (€70). Henry Hub is at $4.11 ($4.08) and JKM is at $13.67 ($13.69) with TTF Equiv of $13.42 ($13.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.