Market Insights 13/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 13/03/2025

A small downward movement come the end of the session after a larger downward movement seen following the release of the ICE Commitment of Traders report which showed a further 48 TWh reduction in net positions held by Investment Funds – taking the total net reduction down by 166 TWh over the last four weeks. However, unlike previous weeks where the reduction was due to reduction of long positions, this week was an increase in short positions to give the net movement.

Russia have commented overnight on the proposed peace solution with three expectations they appear to be setting as red lines. They are no NATO membership for Ukraine, no foreign troops in Ukraine and international recognition of Russian held Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces. These are largely unsurprising demands and it seems a nod to these is expected before Russia agrees to a ceasefire – clearly wanting to know there is understanding of expectations before they do so.

No mention in the demands, in those three key points at least, of any expectation around lifting of sanctions or flowing gas towards Europe.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.25 (from €42.71) and the NBP Front Month contract at 104.19p (from 105.32p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 332mcm (321). EU gas storage showing at 36.23% (35.88%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (10).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €42 (vs €42 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 104p, Front Season 103p (vs 105p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 107p)
UK Power Base spot £104 (from £95)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£86) and Front Season at £81 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($70) and EUAs are at €70 (€68). Henry Hub is at $4.08 ($4.45) and JKM is at $13.69 ($13.69) with TTF Equiv of $13.53 ($13.69).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.