Market Insights 12/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/03/2025

A topsy turvy day session throughout much of the day with the final hour seeing an aggressive push upwards.

Despite the temperature outlook for the weeks ahead being lower than seasonal normal in the latest forecast runs, which of course will be a concern, comments made at a conference by the European Union Energy Commissioner appeared to generate the headline that a peace deal may be difficult to reach and security guarantees being a key focus much wider than Ukraine.

That pushed the market upwards to close around 5% up on the day, with the final trades sitting above the settlement, however after the close it appeared a positive step had been made with Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire. Russia will also need to agree to this which will then hopefully see more detail being discussed during that time to reach a prolonged and sustained peace agreement. What will be included in those terms is yet to be seen.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.71 (from €41.23) and the NBP Front Month contract at 105.32p (from 100.81p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 321mcm (321). EU gas storage showing at 35.88% (36.67%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €43 (vs €43 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 105p, Front Season 104p (vs 101p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 107p (from 102p)
UK Power Base spot £95 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£83) and Front Season at £84 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($69) and EUAs are at €68 (€69). Henry Hub is at $4.45 ($4.49) and JKM is at $13.69 ($13.76) with TTF Equiv of $13.69 ($13.10).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.