Market Insights 11/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/03/2025

A further upward start to the week, pushing back through key levels broken last week on the way down, such as €40/MWh and 100p/therm on the front month and front season contracts.

Concerns continue to remain over a potential peace deal, now being discussed this with all sides in Saudi Arabia, and what may or may not be included in any terms. Meanwhile the attacks continue from both sides, near to potential (and currently unused) energy infrastructure which is at risk of damage.

Whilst some commentators may be concerned at Europes push back on using more Russian gas to fund their military effort, Russian LNG is still coming to Europe. Three such cargoes are expected in France in the short term and the European Commission has considerably softened its stance on banning such cargoes. An opposing view is that Europe continues to pay Russia for this gas at elevated prices. If Europe was to accept a flow of pipeline gas via the recently expired route via Ukraine, would that help soften prices and the supply concerns for Europe? If so then would the financials then remain ‘mainly unchanged’ whilst Europe sees itself out of a supply squeeze? This may be why potential gas flow may form part of a peace deal.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.23 (from €39.97) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.81p (from 97.70p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 321mcm (329). EU gas storage showing at 36.67% (36.80%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (7).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 100p (vs 98p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 96p)
UK Power Base spot £92 (from £86)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£81) and Front Season at £80 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($70) and EUAs are at €69 (€69). Henry Hub is at $4.49 ($4.40) and JKM is at $13.76 ($13.76) with TTF Equiv of $13.10 ($12.73).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.