Market Insights 10/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 10/03/2025

Friday saw an unwinding of the losses seen on Thursday mainly due to the Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight which may see more assistance required from European markets – which is already under strain as we head towards the end of the winter delivery period and may have an uphill summer period to face into.

Over the weekend Russian forces caught Ukrainian fighters off guard by using the unused gas pipe in an attempt to reclaim territory it took last summer near to Sudzha on the Russian border.

This week sees the potential further talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US in finding a peace deal to be held in Saudi Arabia – the outcome of which may determine direction of markets. This is likely to be the main focal point of how the rest of 2025 may pan out for energy markets and will be closely watched. Whilst all parties publicly state they want to find a solution for peace, the terms at which an agreement can be made may be the difficult part.

Shorter term, colder temperatures are expected this week – below seasonal normal.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.97 (from €38.24) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.70p (from 93.03p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (333). EU gas storage showing at 36.80% (37.17%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 7 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €40 (vs €40 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 97p (vs 93p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 92p)
UK Power Base spot £86 (from £93)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £81 (£78) and Front Season at £77 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $70 ($69) and EUAs are at €69 (€67). Henry Hub is at $4.40 ($4.40) and JKM is at $13.76 ($13.69) with TTF Equiv of $12.73 ($12.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.