Market Insights 06/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 06/03/2025

A downward movement seen in the markets yesterday after the spat between world leaders seems to be calming with a move that could see President Trump re-visited by the French, UK and Ukrainian leaders in a joint visit to sign the minerals deal at any moment.

Yesterday the European Commission published further documents regarding the gas storage refilling targets for the coming years. This is essentially unchanged with a 90% target by 1st November, however it mentions some possible flexibility on the intermediate checkpoints to get there. Some analysts seem to have taken this in varying context with some saying the target can be flexed to 1st December – however the document is clear this needs to only be the case in unavoidable circumstances (such as infrastructure issues) and is not an available option to play with. As the market digests this, as it did last week with the detail not matching the headline, the price levels may reconsider how flexible this flexibility really is (or is not).

With the latest temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead also looking below seasonal normal, this may also push gas storage levels lower before the end of the heating season and the restart of this years refilling.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.51 (from €43.46) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.10p (from 103.57p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 333mcm (331). EU gas storage showing at 37.32% (37.63%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (10).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €42 (vs €42 and €44)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 100p (vs 104p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 104p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£85) and Front Season at £80 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($71) and EUAs are at €69 (€69). Henry Hub is at $4.45 ($4.35) and JKM is at $13.73 ($13.83) with TTF Equiv of $13.12 ($13.44).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.