Market Insights 05/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 05/03/2025

A lot of anticipation remains in the market after a very turbulent few days from a geopolitical perspective and a rumour mill running wild.

Last night President Trump gave his major speech to Congress. It included confirmation he had received contact from President Zelenskyy, in the form of a letter, who is now ready to sign the minerals deal, maintaining hope that a peace deal could soon be reached. He remained silent or brief on some of the other items he was expected to make decisive decisions on.

The world continues to watch and wait for every word spoken by President Trump as the impact of what he says is likely to have a global effect to varying degrees.

The energy markets appear comfortable that some form of positive outlook remains in sight. Despite rumours of Nord Stream 2 AG being used again, which was recently approved for maintenance works later this year, it has been denied by Germany they are in talks with Russia to flow gas – with parts of the rumour mill considering if the US brokered peace deal will include its use.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.46 (from €45.21) and the NBP Front Month contract at 103.57p (from 107.16p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 331mcm (331). EU gas storage showing at 37.63% (38.23%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €44 (vs €43 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 104p, Front Season 104p (vs 107p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 109p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £96)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£88) and Front Season at £82 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($72) and EUAs are at €69 (€72). Henry Hub is at $4.35 ($4.12) and JKM is at $13.83 ($13.97) with TTF Equiv of $13.44 ($13.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.