Market Insights 04/03/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/03/2025

After a very aggressive upward start to the day, which was fully expected after the concerns introduced over the weekend, prices slowly dropped from their 7% high to close much closer to Fridays close at the end of the day – although still upwards by a few percent.

Tensions remain between the US and Ukraine with President Trump tentatively touching on the topic during a press conference last night when talking about an unrelated investment deal. However shortly after that conference he has announced that aid to Ukraine has ceased with immediate effect.

He is clearly not happy with the way things have played out on Friday, and it would seem since then with the Europeans (albeit appearing somewhat divided in the way forward) stepping in to lead the way ahead. These are concerning times and the markets will remain very sensitive to anything said by any one on this topic.

Europe are now deeply reliant on the US to be its key energy partner after the refusal to accept Russian pipeline gas and will need to manage President Trump carefully in ensuring he remains onside with whatever route Europe takes in the steps to negotiate a peace deal concerning Ukraine.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.21 (from €44.32) and the NBP Front Month contract at 107.16p (from 104.83p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 331mcm (331). EU gas storage showing at 38.23% (38.23%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 12 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €45 (vs €45 and €44)
Curve NBP Front Month 107p, Front Season 107p (vs 105p and 105p)
UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 112p)
UK Power Base spot £96 (from £101)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£86) and Front Season at £84 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($73) and EUAs are at €72 (€71). Henry Hub is at $4.12 ($3.83) and JKM is at $13.97 ($13.85) with TTF Equiv of $13.93 ($13.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.