Market Insights 28/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 28/02/2025

Perhaps as expected, upon reading the detail underlying the headline from Wednesday which pushed the market aggressively downwards, the market had a full unwind in yesterdays session.

Whilst the content, and intent, of the European Commission document was disputed on Wednesday, the realisation it was not an approval to reduce the near term gas storage targets – which gave the directional drive on Wednesday – quickly reset the levels to an ‘as you were’ position yesterday.

In reality, any downward adjustment of the 90% target or the intermediate targets would be a bullish signal in the lead up to winter. The targets were initially set to ensure security of supply and todays market is little different to when these rules were initially implemented in that regard.

The exodus of exiting profitable long financial positions on the rumour are likely to have caused the sell off, with perhaps some further profit gained in rebuying them back in yesterdays session.

Today sees a new front month contract now that we have reached the end of February.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.15 (from €41.34) and the NBP Front Month contract at 107.12p (from 98.78p).

Skarv remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 325mcm (328). EU gas storage showing at 39.54% (39.93%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 14 (13).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €45 (vs €45 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 107p, Front Season 107p (vs 99p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 98p)
UK Power Base spot £101 (from £97)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £91 (£87) and Front Season at £86 (£79).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €73 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.93 ($3.96) and JKM is at $13.99 ($13.49) with TTF Equiv of $13.78 ($12.74).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.