Market Insights 26/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 26/02/2025

A downward movement seen yet again in yesterdays session.

Rumours of the US-Ukraine ‘minerals deal’ of recent days appear to be more concrete with the Ukrainian now side confirming a deal has been agreed and President Zelenskyy due to meet President Trump in Washington later this week.

This may be giving some further comfort to the market that a peace deal is quite likely, after fear premium had been injected in recent months around the impact of Russian gas no longer flowing through Ukraine at the turn of the year.

Wider than that it is understood Ukraine is also seeking to import US LNG in a long term deal and use that to refill its gas storage sites and potentially flow gas towards Europe.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.29 (from €47.14) and the NBP Front Month contract at 105.98p (from 112.83p).

Skarv on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 328mcm (329). EU gas storage showing at 40.30% (40.60%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 12 (13).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €45 (vs €44 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 106p, Front Season 106p (vs 113p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 111p)
UK Power Base spot £103 (from £97)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £89 (£94) and Front Season at £85 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($75) and EUAs are at €72 (€74). Henry Hub is at $4.17 ($3.99) and JKM is at $13.86 ($14.34) with TTF Equiv of $13.62 ($14.47).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.