DAILY MARKET REPORT – 24/02/2025
Today sadly marks the third anniversary of the conflict in Ukraine.
A small downward tick seen to close out the week last week, which simply continues the downward movement enjoyed over the last week or so.
This week may be a key week as we head towards the end of February and into the final month of winter delivery.
The European Commission are expected to release plans on how to manage gas storage into the future, perhaps a move away from the legislation set during the energy crisis. The US and Russia, at some point, are expected to continue talks – however this seems to now pivot on the US-Ukraine deal to agree on a minerals deal which has developed far beyond a verbal proposal with ‘drafts’ now being edited to agree the terms. Meanwhile Europe and Ukraine stick to their guns, publicly at least, to state they expect a seat at the negotiating table – with the UK and French leaders due to meet with President Trump this week.
Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.20 (from €47.49) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.33p (from 113.55p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 326mcm (327). EU gas storage showing at 40.76% (41.93%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 14 (14).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €48 (vs €47 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 112p, Front Season 113p (vs 114p and 114p)
UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 116p)
UK Power Base spot £71 (from £63)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £91 (£92) and Front Season at £87 (£87).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($76) and EUAs are at €74 (€73). Henry Hub is at $4.23 ($4.15) and JKM is at $14.18 ($14.25) with TTF Equiv of $14.46 ($14.58).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 24/02/2025
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