Market Insights 21/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/02/2025

Further downward movement seen yesterday, albeit small, as the market continues to hold fundamentals in comfortable view.

Temperatures for the coming days are higher than seasonal normal and expected to hold close normal for the remaining days of winter delivery in the latest forecasts – but is always subject to change.

LNG arrivals into the Europe and the UK remain strong, with the UK expecting 14 ships in the coming weeks, mostly from the US.

Next week the European Commission are expected to release plans, much of it already leaked, on the security of energy to supply and a move away from Russian fossil fuels, to include LNG, increase LNG imports from the US and others and remove red tape to introduce more renewables and a potential relaxation of storage refilling targets.

Alongside that we of course wait on any developments in the talks between the US and Russia over an end to the conflict in Ukraine – with the latter and Europe still publicly trying to rally themselves as key players in any negotiations whilst the US continue to appear to dismiss them as having any material involvement.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.49 (from €48.26) and the NBP Front Month contract at 113.55p (from 114.98p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 327mcm (333). EU gas storage showing at 41.93% (42.59%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 14 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €48 (vs €47 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 114p, Front Season 114p (vs 115p and 115p)
UK Gas NBP spot 116p (from 114p)
UK Power Base spot £63 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£93) and Front Season at £87 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €73 (€74). Henry Hub is at $4.15 ($4.28) and JKM is at $14.25 ($14.12) with TTF Equiv of $14.58 ($14.73).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.