Market Insights 20/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/02/2025

The downward momentum continued yesterday after a small bounce was seen in the previous session.

Considerably warmer temperatures for the days ahead, followed by close to seasonal normal levels for the coming weeks will help alleviate any pressure on EU gas storage levels. Those levels, whilst lower than perhaps some would feel comfortable with, remains in line with the intermediate refilling targets set late last year (see our recent post on this).

Discussions around ending the conflict in Ukraine seem to now take a pause, perhaps until Presidents Trump and Putin meet in person – possibly in the very near future. President Trump has been very vocal about his disappointment in the lack of progress by Ukraine and Europe in bringing the conflict to an end over the last few years.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.26 (from €49.22) and the NBP Front Month contract at 114.98p (from 117.90p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 333mcm (330). EU gas storage showing at 42.59% (43.37%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 12 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €48 (vs €48 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 115p, Front Season 115p (vs 118p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 120p)
UK Power Base spot £88 (from £100)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £93 (£96) and Front Season at £89 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €74 (€76). Henry Hub is at $4.28 ($4.01) and JKM is at $14.12 ($14.55) with TTF Equiv of $14.73 ($15.09).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.