Market Insights 19/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 19/02/2025

An upward bounce seen yesterday, but likely not caused by the ‘positive’ talks between the US and Russia who appear to both see a pathway forwards to ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Talks seemed to focus on structuring high level agreements, perhaps with both sides outlining where the limits are, ahead of Presidents Trump and Putin expected to meet in the coming weeks. It does seem that whilst European and Ukrainian representation may be welcome, how much of a say they will have in any agreement may be limited – particularly with comments made by President Trump overnight citing the opportunities to talk over the last three years which have not been taken.

The energy markets will continue to watch, however the European Commission is expected to release a paper next week introducing ‘dynamic’ refilling targets for gas storage for next winter. This likely caused the upside movement as storage will either be economic to fill or it will not. Having a moveable option to fill or not will likely be concerning. Recently the uneconomic circumstances have pushed prices for this summer way above the winter contract. If a relaxation is to happen, this could cause further fear for the year ahead as to how much gas will be stored for next winter. Whilst the details are waited for, this week ahead could be a nervous one for the markets.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €49.22 (from €48.14) and the NBP Front Month contract at 117.90p (from 115.72p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 330mcm (327). EU gas storage showing at 43.37% (44.05%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 12 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €50, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €49 (vs €49 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 118p, Front Season 118p (vs 116p and 115p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 117p)
UK Power Base spot £100 (from £109)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£95) and Front Season at £91 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($75) and EUAs are at €76 (€77). Henry Hub is at $4.01 ($3.73) and JKM is at $14.55 ($15.14) with TTF Equiv of $15.09 ($14.79).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.