Market Insights 17/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/02/2025

Talks of a potential deal being made between the US and Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, whilst appearing to exclude Ukraine and Europe from the discussions, appear to be giving the energy markets some confidence.

The US are also becoming more aggressive with their LNG export plans, and on Friday President Trump approved further LNG projects which had been previously paused by the former administration.

Overlaying that is the realisation that the European energy storage refilling plans need to be reconsidered with several discussions around a potential relaxation of the aggressive refill required this summer.

In the days ahead warmer weather is expected, considerably above the seasonal normal, before settling for the weeks ahead.

All of these factors will be confidence boosting for the market in general as it holds its current course of stripping out some of the risk premium built up over many recent weeks.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.69 (from €51.38) and the NBP Front Month contract at 122.26p (from 124.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 330mcm (323). EU gas storage showing at 44.61% (46.57%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 11 (7).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €50, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €51 (vs €51 and €51)
Curve NBP Front Month 122p, Front Season 121p (vs 124p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 125p (from 129p)
UK Power Base spot £117 (from £129)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £101 (£103) and Front Season at £91 (£95).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($75) and EUAs are at €80 (€78). Henry Hub is at $3.73 ($3.63) and JKM is at $15.14 ($14.94) with TTF Equiv of $15.60 ($15.72).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.