Market Insights 13/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 13/02/2025

A continuation of the final hour from Tuesdays session was seen early on yesterday, pushing price levels down further where they held for much of the day with some varied movement throughout the session.

Warmer temperature forecasts for the week ahead will have given some comfort and perhaps some more long positions held being exited in order to take profit as we now slowly edge out of the winter delivery period and start to look ahead to the rest of the year.

Meanwhile Presidents Trump and Putin confirmed they have now started talks to negotiate the end of the conflict in Ukraine, however Ukraine nor Europe do not yet appear to be a party to those talks.

That said, we’ve seen these odd days of ‘correction’ many times and the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged and so we could yet see more upside to come.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €55.66 (from €57.77) and the NBP Front Month contract at 134.99p (from 140.57p).

Kristin and Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 319mcm (329). EU gas storage showing at 47.24% (47.89%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 7 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €54, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €54, Front Season €55 (vs €56 and €57)
Curve NBP Front Month 135p, Front Season 134p (vs 141p and 138p)
UK Gas NBP spot 139p (from 142p)
UK Power Base spot £131 (from £126)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £110 (£114) and Front Season at £101 (£106).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($77) and EUAs are at €80 (€83). Henry Hub is at $3.57 ($3.52) and JKM is at $14.92 ($14.89) with TTF Equiv of $16.93 ($17.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.