Market Insights 12/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/02/2025

A strange day seen yesterday with quite a wide spread between the lowest and highest prices traded over the course of the session.

However come the final hour the market pushed lower.

This could be because of a number of factors including Germanys gas trading hub seeking ways in which to boost gas storage levels, less cold temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead, or rumours of the EU considering a new price cap. Those factors may have forced the hand of some players holding long positions to take their profit and exit positions.

That said, we’ve seen these odd days of ‘correction’ many times and the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged and so we could yet see more upside to come.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €57.77 (from €58.04) and the NBP Front Month contract at 140.57p (from 141.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (329). EU gas storage showing at 47.89% (48.48%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €56, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €56, Front Season €57 (vs €58 and €57)
Curve NBP Front Month 141p, Front Season 138p (vs 141p and 138p)
UK Gas NBP spot 142p (from 148p)
UK Power Base spot £126 (from £124)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £114 (£116) and Front Season at £106 (£106).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($76) and EUAs are at €83 (€83). Henry Hub is at $3.52 ($3.44) and JKM is at $14.89 ($14.79) with TTF Equiv of $17.53 ($17.56).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.