Market Insights 11/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/02/2025

New highs were reached in yesterdays session as the front month and near term curve contracts rallied further.

Colder temperature forecasts and an underlying concern around gas storage levels are driving concerns around refilling plans for next winter.

Whilst many will ask how far can this really go, the answer is simply there is no ceiling. We have seen that the past (pre 2021) imaginary ceiling of 100p, £100 or €100 on any commodity has, and can, be broken. This only gives encouragement to potential further upside. In the meantime we may have days of retracement, much like we saw once or twice per week in recent weeks, whilst a further upward push is in motion.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €58.04 (from €55.72) and the NBP Front Month contract at 141.25p (from 135.75p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (335). EU gas storage showing at 48.48% (49.02%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 9 (7).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €57, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €57, Front Season €57 (vs €58 and €55)
Curve NBP Front Month 141p, Front Season 138p (vs 136p and 133p)
UK Gas NBP spot 148p (from 141p)
UK Power Base spot £124 (from £118)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £116 (£112) and Front Season at £106 (£103).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($75) and EUAs are at €83 (€82). Henry Hub is at $3.44 ($3.31) and JKM is at $14.79 ($14.73) with TTF Equiv of $17.56 ($16.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.