Market Insights 10/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 10/02/2025

A continuation of the bullish run was seen on Friday, pushing prices once again to new highs not seen for over a year.

Ukraine continue to import gas from Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Hungary as it’s gas storage withdrawal levels slow but are now below 10%.

Across the rest of the EU, gas storage now sits below 50% on average with the largest capacities in Germany and Italy still holding 50% and 60% respectively whilst the next largest Netherlands and France each hold a little over 30% of their respective capacities.

Over the weekend it was reported that Presidents Trump and Putin have spoken, potentially several times, focussing on bringing an end to the conflict in Ukraine – whilst President Zelenskyy has said “Let’s do a deal” in offering the US a partnership in its ‘rare earths’ as part of the resolution.

Meanwhile the Baltic states also passed an historic moment when they switched electricity power grids from Russian sourced to EU sourced.

Later this week will see the conclusion of the Ofgem domestic price cap calculation period for the next period starting on 1st April. You can view our recent forecast from a couple of weeks ago in the link below but we will issue our final view once the calculation period closes.

https://lnkd.in/eNviy78w

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €55.72 (from €54.50) and the NBP Front Month contract at 135.75p (from 133.19p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 335mcm (336). EU gas storage showing at 49.02% (50.63%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 7 (10).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €57, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €57, Front Season €55 (vs €56 and €54)
Curve NBP Front Month 136p, Front Season 133p (vs 133p and 130p)
UK Gas NBP spot 141p (from 135p)
UK Power Base spot £118 (from £114)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £112 (£110) and Front Season at £103 (£101).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €82 (€82). Henry Hub is at $3.31 ($3.41) and JKM is at $14.73 ($14.52) with TTF Equiv of $16.88 ($16.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.