DAILY MARKET REPORT – 06/02/2025
And as predicted, the downward movement was short lived and prices rose again in yesterdays session back to where they were.
Whilst little is change in terms of fundamentals, it seems clear that concerns around a colder February with quickly depleting gas stocks – which are already at lower levels than in recent years – and a negative summer-winter spread is testing the nerve of market and keeping the bullish trend firmly in control overall for now.
It is hard to say what will drive a reverse to this trend without a substantial positive outlook news story to find its way to the forefront. Talks of Presidents Trump and Putin seeking to meet in the near future may be a catalyst, however it seems most unlikely that any ‘deal’ negotiated will simply resolve matters within a day to the satisfaction of all parties. In the meantime Europe must accept these new price levels will likely remain.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €53.44 (from €52.05) and the NBP Front Month contract at 130.47p (from 126.65p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 329mcm (318), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 51.30% (51.97%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (9).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €54, UP €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €53, Front Season €53 (vs €53 and €52)
Curve NBP Front Month 130p, Front Season 127p (vs 127p and 124p)
UK Gas NBP spot 135p (from 133p)
UK Power Base spot £120 (from £117)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £107 (£105) and Front Season at £98 (£96).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($76) and EUAs are at €81 (€81). Henry Hub is at $3.36 ($3.25) and JKM is at $14.43 ($14.50) with TTF Equiv of $16.34 ($15.85).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 06/02/2025
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