Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 February 2025

Market Insights 05/02/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 05/02/2025

A correction seen in yesterdays session as we saw a drop in price levels across the curve.

However we’ve seen this plenty of times in recent weeks and months and the bullish momentum takes over once again.

Right now the underlying fundamentals are unchanged, and there is still plenty of concern for the markets in the short term for that trend to continue. Colder temperatures arrive in the coming days which will add further pressure to storage withdrawals.

Whist we can see European countries review their requirements as to gas storage refill for next winter, the fact remains the lower the stocks come the end of March the more that will be needed to inject during the summer and the negative spread between the summer and winter contracts is still very wide.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €52.05 (from €53.79) and the NBP Front Month contract at 126.65p (from 130.85p).

Njord on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 318mcm (322), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 51.97% (52.65%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 9 (11).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €52, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €52, Front Season €52 (vs €52 and €53)
Curve NBP Front Month 127p, Front Season 124p (vs 131p and 128p)
UK Gas NBP spot 133p (from 136p)
UK Power Base spot £117 (from £108)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £105 (£108) and Front Season at £96 (£99).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €81 (€81). Henry Hub is at $3.25 ($3.35) and JKM is at $14.50 ($14.41) with TTF Equiv of $15.85 ($16.24).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.